Airbus 2026 Global Market Forecast Projects 42,060 New Aircraft Demand and 3.9% Annual Traffic Growth

Global – Airbus has published its 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF), projecting demand for 42,060 new aircraft over the next 20 years — comprising 19,820 replacements and 22,240 for growth — with global passenger traffic forecast to grow at 3.9% annually, reaching approximately 10 billion passengers per year by 2045. The forecast's upward revision in annual traffic growth from 3.6% in the 2025 GMF to 3.9%, combined with accelerating fleet replacement cycles and Asia-Pacific demand shifts, directly reinforces the pilot training demand baseline: each new aircraft entering service generates recurring type rating, recurrent, and line training requirements, and the projected doubling of global traffic volumes implies a corresponding expansion in crew training throughput across all segments.

• Airbus projects demand for 42,060 new aircraft through 2045, of which 81% will be single-aisle and 19% widebody, down from the 43,420 total projected in the 2025 GMF but with a higher annual traffic growth rate (3.9% versus 3.6%).
• The forecast identifies 19,820 aircraft replacements driven by post-COVID fleet aging and demand for fuel-efficient new-generation types, with the remaining 22,240 aircraft required for fleet growth.
• Airbus' current order backlog stands at approximately 9,000 aircraft, with over 70% of the A320 Family backlog allocated to the A321neo and A321XLR variants. The A320 production rate is targeting rate 75.
• The middle class demographic most likely to fly is projected to increase by 1.4 billion people (+34%) by 2045, driven by urbanisation shifting toward smaller cities and GDP growth concentrated in developing economies including India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
• By 2045, Airbus forecasts that nearly 100% of the global fleet will comprise newest-generation aircraft, up from approximately 39% in 2026, accelerating fleet renewal and type transition training demand.
• The forecast highlights expanding connectivity beyond trunk routes to smaller and medium city pairs, enabled by aircraft range and efficiency improvements — citing examples including the A220 on routes such as Riga–Tenerife, the A321XLR on Dublin–Nashville, and the A350 on Taipei–Phoenix.
• AFM previously reported on the 2025 Airbus GMF, which projected 43,420 new aircraft by 2044 with 3.6% annual traffic growth and a 1.5 billion-person increase in the middle class. The 2026 edition revises the traffic growth rate upward while adjusting the total aircraft demand figure downward, reflecting recalibrated replacement and growth assumptions.

Source: Airbus