Boeing Forecasts Global Freighter Fleet to Grow 67% to 4,010 Aircraft by 2045

Global – US aircraft manufacturer Boeing has released its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast, projecting that the global freighter fleet will expand by 67% through 2045 as worldwide air cargo traffic doubles. The outlook, published on October 28, 2026, identifies long-term demand for new and converted freighter aircraft.

• Boeing forecasts that the global dedicated freighter fleet will increase from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 aircraft by 2045, representing a net increase of 1,615 aircraft over the 20-year period.
• The manufacturer projects demand for 2,930 new-production and converted freighters between 2026 and 2045. Approximately 55% of deliveries will support fleet expansion, while the remaining 45% will replace older aircraft retiring from service.
• Passenger-to-freighter conversions are expected to account for approximately two-thirds of deliveries, with the remaining third comprising newly manufactured freighters.
• Global air cargo traffic is projected to grow by an average of 3.5% annually through 2045, outpacing expected economic and international trade growth. The forecast follows a record year in 2025, when worldwide air cargo traffic increased by nearly 5%.
• Boeing identifies e-commerce, supply chain diversification, advanced manufacturing and demand for artificial intelligence-related hardware as factors supporting cargo market expansion. According to figures cited by Boeing from IATA, more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025.
• Trade flows involving Asia are expected to account for approximately 60% of the global air cargo market. The South Asia–East Asia market is projected to expand 3.2 times by 2045, while East Asia–North America traffic is forecast to nearly double, supporting demand for additional cargo aircraft and associated flight crew training capacity.
• Dedicated freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of worldwide air cargo traffic. Express and time-definite cargo operators are projected to increase their share of the market to nearly 25% by 2045, creating additional requirements for aircraft operations and crew qualification.
• AFM previously reported that Boeing's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook projected 43,625 new commercial aircraft deliveries through 2045, including 930 new-production freighters. The latest World Air Cargo Forecast expands on the cargo outlook by detailing the broader requirement for 2,930 new and converted freighters, including replacement aircraft. AFM also reported that Boeing expects global demand for 674,000 new commercial pilots and 728,000 maintenance technicians over the same period.
• Boeing's freighter forecast encompasses dedicated cargo aircraft of different sizes, including narrowbody and widebody platforms. The 930 new-production freighters are included in Boeing's wider commercial aircraft delivery outlook, while passenger-to-freighter conversions account for the balance of projected freighter deliveries.

Statements

• “Air cargo's adaptability and speed are strategic advantages enabling reliable transport, dynamic rerouting and critical support for evolving supply chains. As global trade patterns change and demand for time-sensitive, high-value goods grows, dedicated freighters will remain essential to global commerce,” said Darren Hulst, Vice President of Commercial Marketing at Boeing.

Source: Boeing