Europe – European airlines and energy markets are maintaining operational continuity on jet fuel supply in the near term, but analysts, officials, and traders are warning that the region's ability to sustain current flying levels is increasingly dependent on temporary workarounds that may not hold through the summer and into autumn.

Europe has offset the loss of Gulf supplies following the outbreak of the war in Iran by increasing jet fuel imports from the US by nearly five times between February and May, boosting refinery yields domestically, and drawing on capacity from a recently reactivated Nigerian refinery.
The International Energy Agency's April forecast that European jet fuel supplies would be exhausted by late May has not materialized, and the European Commission has stated there are no immediate risks to supply.
However, market research firm Kpler projects that demand worth more than 50,000 barrels of EU and UK jet fuel will still need to be absorbed or destroyed by September, pointing to a potential tightening of supply as workarounds reach their limits.
Oxford Economics has warned that rich-world oil stockpiles could reach a critical threshold by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed past July, with Brent crude potentially spiking above $150 per barrel.
EU officials privately warn that airlines may raise fares or cancel flights if supply conditions deteriorate, and that airlines' publicly optimistic communications on fuel supply have kept demand at normal levels without prompting any reduction in consumption.
Further supply risks identified for the second half of the year include renewed US airstrikes on Iran diverting jet fuel to military use, a potential US export ban if domestic motor fuel prices surge during the holiday period, and an anticipated demand surge from flights to the US for the FIFA World Cup.
The US LNG sector, which dramatically expanded exports to Europe following the Ukraine war, is reported to have reached full production capacity, with only incremental increases possible before 2031.

Source: IAE, Kpler and AFM Research

European Jet Fuel Supply Holds Through 2026 Spring but Analysts Warn of Tightening Conditions Ahead of Autumn

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