Global Air Passenger Traffic Contracts for First Time Since COVID as Middle East Conflict Drives 46.6% Regional Decline

Global – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported that global passenger traffic contracted by 3.4% year-on-year in April 2026, marking the first YoY contraction since the post-pandemic recovery, driven by a 46.6% decline in traffic carried by Middle Eastern carriers amid the ongoing regional conflict and higher oil prices adding further operational pressure.

• Industry-wide revenue passenger kilometers totaled 748 billion in April, with the Passenger Load Factor (PLF) declining by 0.4 percentage points to 83.1% — the first YoY fall in PLF in 2026. Industry-wide capacity fell by 2.9% YoY.
• Middle Eastern carriers saw the sharpest decline at 46.6% YoY, though this represented a moderation from the 59.2% contraction in March, reflecting the US-Iran ceasefire and subsequent partial reopening of regional airspace. Middle East PLF dropped 12.5 percentage points to 70.6%.
• International traffic contraction deepened from 0.6% YoY in March to 5.3% YoY in April, with Middle Eastern carriers' international RPK declining 48.1%. Domestic traffic slipped to flat (−0.04% YoY), down from 6.6% growth in March.
• Regional performance varied significantly:
  • Latin American and Caribbean carriers led growth at 5.0% YoY
  • African carriers grew 2.8%
  • Asia Pacific posted 1.7% (down sharply from 11.3% in March)
  • European carriers grew 0.8%
  • North American carriers contracted 0.3%
  • Middle Eastern carriers contracted 46.6%
• Among major domestic markets,
  • India recorded the weakest performance at −2.9% YoY with PLF dropping 4.3 percentage points to 81.6%
  • The US domestic market contracted 0.6%
  • Australia declined 0.4%
  • Japan led domestic growth at 3.7%.
• Europe-Asia international traffic maintained strong double-digit growth at 15.3% YoY, reflecting continued diversion of traffic away from Middle Eastern hub airports toward direct services.
• Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to decline 1.1% YoY in May, with a fragile 0.2% recovery projected for June. Middle East capacity is projected to fall 26.6% YoY in May and 16.2% in June.

About IATA 
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the trade association for the world's airlines, representing approximately 340 member airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic. IATA's monthly Air Passenger Market Analysis provides the industry benchmark for global and regional traffic performance.

Source: IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis – April 2026