Global Airline Passenger Demand Returns to Growth After Three-Month Contraction

Global – The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing more than 370 airlines, reported that global passenger demand returned to year-on-year growth in July 2026, increasing 0.2% after three consecutive months of contraction.

• Global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased 0.2% year-on-year in July, while available seat kilometers (ASK) rose 0.3%. Passenger load factor was 85.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from July 2025. Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, global demand increased 1.2%.
• July marked a return to global traffic growth following contractions of 3.4% in April, 2.2% in May and 1.7% in June. AFM previously reported that the June decline was driven partly by weakness in China, the United States and Japan and continued disruption affecting Middle Eastern carriers.
• International passenger demand remained 0.1% below July 2025, despite capacity increasing 0.3%. Excluding Middle Eastern airlines, international demand increased 1.5%. International load factor stood at 85.2%, down 0.3 percentage points.
• Domestic traffic increased 0.6% year-on-year against a 0.2% increase in capacity, taking domestic load factor to 85.3%. China recorded 5.3% domestic demand growth and Brazil 6.0%, while India declined 6.3%, Australia 0.5% and the United States 0.5%; Japan increased 0.9%.
• Regional total-market demand developed as follows:
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: +6.1% RPK | +6.6% ASK | 85.3% load factor
  • Africa: +5.2% RPK | +7.3% ASK | 75.1% load factor
  • Europe: +2.1% RPK | +2.3% ASK | 87.7% load factor
  • Asia-Pacific: +1.0% RPK | +0.3% ASK | 83.7% load factor
  • North America: -1.2% RPK | -1.8% ASK | 87.3% load factor
  • Middle East: -10.0% RPK | -6.2% ASK | 80.7% load factor.
• Within international markets, Latin American airlines recorded the strongest growth at 7.1%, followed by African carriers at 6.4% and European carriers at 3.1%. Asia-Pacific international demand declined 0.7%, North America fell 2.3% and Middle Eastern carriers remained 9.5% below July 2025.
• Europe-Asia passenger traffic increased 12.1%, the fastest growth among the major international corridors tracked by IATA. By comparison, transatlantic traffic declined 2.2%, with IATA identifying reductions in traffic from the UK, France and Spain.
• Middle Eastern international demand continued to recover from the disruption earlier in 2026, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 9.5% in July from 14.0% in June and 28.8% in May. Its July international capacity remained 5.8% below the prior year.
• IATA said airlines were planning an almost 3% year-on-year expansion in seat capacity for September, despite continued high fuel costs, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. If deployed as scheduled, the additional capacity would increase aircraft utilization and crew requirements relative to the prior year.
• IATA notes that its traffic data is provisional, incorporates estimates for missing information and may subsequently be revised. Its statistics cover scheduled domestic and international traffic from both IATA member and non-member airlines.
• AFM previously reported that IATA recorded a 1.7% decline in global passenger demand in June 2026, with Middle Eastern carriers down 13.9%. The July figures therefore represent both a return to overall growth and a further narrowing of the Middle East contraction. 

Statements

• “The peak Northern summer travel season is a mostly positive story for air travel. Overall growth of 0.2% in July was achieved despite year-on-year collective declines by carriers in North America and the Middle East. Notably, traffic through the Gulf hubs continues its recovery trajectory. Although high fuel costs, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue, carriers are expressing confidence in demand for the last part of the year with an almost 3% expansion of seat capacity in September,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist at IATA. 

About International Air Transport Association
IATA is the global trade association for airlines and represents more than 370 carriers accounting for approximately 85% of global air traffic. Its activities include airline industry standards, policy, safety, operations, economics and aviation training. IATA's monthly passenger statistics cover scheduled international and domestic air traffic operated by member and non-member airlines, using RPK to measure passenger demand, ASK to measure available capacity and passenger load factor to measure the proportion of capacity utilized.

Source: IATA