IATA Long-Term Demand Projections Forecast Global Air Travel to More Than Double by 2050

Global – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published its Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) for global air passenger travel to 2050, forecasting that demand will more than double from 9 trillion Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) recorded in 2024, with the central scenario projecting 20.8 trillion RPKs by mid-century.

• Under IATA's mid-growth scenario, global RPK is projected to reach 20.8 trillion by 2050, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.1% over the 2024–2050 period. The high-growth scenario projects 21.9 trillion RPKs at a 3.3% CAGR, and the low-growth scenario projects 19.5 trillion RPKs at a 2.9% CAGR.
• The scenarios are driven by alternative modelling of long-term economic growth, population trajectories, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition — including the projected scale-up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) — and air transport supply-side capacity development.
• Asia Pacific and Africa are projected to be the fastest-growing regional markets under the mid-growth scenario, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively over 2024–2050. Europe and North America are forecast to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.

Statements

• "The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition," Willie Walsh, Director General, IATA.

Source: IATA