Philippines & Vietnam – Southeast Asia's aviation sector is facing acute operational pressure as the Middle East conflict triggers severe jet fuel supply disruptions, with the Philippines warning that aircraft groundings are a real possibility and Vietnam Airlines announcing the suspension of 23 domestic flights per week from 1 April 2026 — developments with direct implications for the region's pilot training activity, recurrency requirements, and airline workforce capacity.
- The Philippines' remaining domestic jet fuel supply is estimated at approximately 38.62 days, according to the country's Department of Energy, with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warning on 24 March 2026 that aircraft groundings are a "distinct possibility" as multiple overseas refuelling points have refused to supply Philippine carriers.
- Cebu Pacific — the Philippines' largest low-cost carrier — has announced temporary route suspensions and frequency cuts from April through October 2026, with fuel costs now more than double 2025 averages due to the conflict
- Vietnam Airlines will suspend seven domestic routes and cancel 23 flights per week from 1 April 2026, prioritising routes critical to national connectivity, trade, tourism, diplomacy, and essential domestic travel — the first formal capacity reduction of this kind in Vietnam's post-COVID aviation recovery.
- Vietnam imports more than two-thirds of its jet fuel requirements, with approximately 60 percent sourced from China and Thailand. China imposed a ban on refined fuel exports on 11 March 2026 and Thailand halted jet fuel exports on 6 March 2026, with Vietnam also reporting reduced supplies from Singapore.
- Jet A-1 fuel imported from Singapore reached USD 227.4 per barrel, up 13.1 percent in a single day, with Vietnam Airlines warning that operating costs could double if fuel prices remain at this level
- Major Vietnamese fuel importers Petrolimex and Skypec have reportedly indicated they can only guarantee supply through Q1 2026.
Source: Government of the Philippines, Cebu Pacific & Vietnam Airlines
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