Embraer has published its 20-year Market Outlook for the sub-150 seat commercial aircraft segment. The report presents global and regional analyses and trends that will influence the demand for new jets and turboprops through 2041.

Embraer officials highlighted key elements of the Market Outlook at a press briefing at the Farnborough Airshow. These included:

Demand Growth and Recovery
Worldwide demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) will grow 3.2% annually (CAGR) over the next two decades. This is slightly less than the 3.3% rate forecast last year. The weaker growth reflects a near-term deceleration of the global economy, follow-on effects from the pandemic, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. RPKs are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2024.

Digitalization and Regionalization
The trends to increased digitalization (work-from-home, video-conferencing) and regionalization (re-shoring to localize production) that emerged at the onset of the pandemic will continue. These will drive demand for smaller-capacity aircraft.

A Focus on Fleet Flexibility and the Transition to Green Technologies
Matching capacity to demand is the most sustainable way to capture the growth opportunities in the post-pandemic world. New green technologies tend to focus on smaller-capacity aircraft where innovations are refined before introduction on larger platforms. In this context smaller airplanes are a key element for more sustainable air travel while also enhancing connectivity.

E-Commerce & Passenger to Freighter Conversions
The explosive growth in e-commerce is opening new markets for smaller-capacity all-cargo jet aircraft and driving demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

New Aircraft Deliveries – By the Numbers
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats 10,950 units (8,670 jets/2,280 turboprops)

Market value of all new aircraft USD 650 billion

Annual RPK growth rate – ranked by region
4.3% Asia Pacific (includes China)
4.0% Latin America
3.8% Africa
3.2% Global Average
3.2% Middle East
2.3% Europe
2.0% North America

RPK share by end of 2041
42% Asia Pacific
38% Europe + North America

Jet deliveries – 8,670 (% share)
2,740 North America ( 31.6%)
2,230 Asia Pacific ( 25.7%)
2,320 Europe & CIS ( 26.8%)
750 Latin America ( 8.7%)
330 Middle East ( 3.8%)
300 Africa ( 3.5%)

Turboprop deliveries – 2,280(% share)
960 Asia Pacific (42.1%)
500 Europe & CIS (21.9%)
400 North America (17.5%)
200 Africa (8.8%)
180 Latin America (7.9%)
40 Middle East (1.8%)

Check out the complete outlook here.

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