According to Oliver Wyman, in its most recent forecast, the demand for pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 — and continue to worsen over the next decade.

“We now expect global aviation to be short nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032, absent a downturn in future demand and/or strenuous efforts by the industry to bolster the supply of pilots.”

Oliver Wyman further explained that the supply of pilots are being confronted by several factors such as early and mandatory retirement, and the dramatic reduction of military pilots which in turn produces lesser pilot supply from the military service to commercial airlines.

“The supply of new commercial pilots is expected to pick up over the next few years. But under current conditions, it doesn’t look like this will be enough to cover increasing demand and the bow wave of retirements the industry will face over the next decade. As a result, we expect that North America will be short nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032.”

Outside of North America, Oliver Wyman forecasts that the Middle East and Europe could face a shortage of 18,000 and 19,000 by 2032, respectively, Asia is still on a surplus, supply in Latin America will unlikely to below the demand, and Africa’s little shortage seen to be overcome.

Source: Oliver Wyman Analysis

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