IATA Reports 0.5% Decline in Global Airline Passenger Demand in September 2026

Global – The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global airline industry trade association, has reported a further year-on-year decline in worldwide passenger demand for September 2026, as weakness in domestic markets and continued disruption affecting Middle Eastern carriers outweighed growth across most international markets. The uneven demand and capacity outlook points to differing near-term requirements for airline flight crews and pilot training capacity across regions.

• Global passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), declined 0.5% compared with September 2025. Available seat kilometres (ASK) decreased 0.2%, while passenger load factor fell 0.3 percentage points to 83.2%. Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, worldwide demand increased 0.3%.
• International passenger demand increased 0.4% year-on-year, supported by a 0.5% increase in capacity. International load factor stood at 83.6%, down 0.1 percentage points. Excluding the Middle East, international demand grew 1.7%.
• Domestic passenger demand declined 2.2%, with capacity falling 1.3%. India recorded an 8.3% decline, its steepest contraction of 2026 to date, while US domestic traffic decreased 2.7%. China (+3.1%), Australia (+4.5%) and Brazil (+2.0%) continued to record domestic demand growth.
• Regional total-market performance remained uneven. Africa recorded 5.0% demand growth, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean at 4.3%, Asia-Pacific at 0.5% and Europe at 0.3%. North American demand contracted 1.6%, while Middle Eastern carriers recorded an 8.0% reduction alongside a 3.8% decline in capacity.
• Within international markets, Latin American airlines recorded 8.2% demand growth, followed by African carriers at 8.0% and European airlines at 1.8%. Middle Eastern international demand remained 7.5% below September 2025, with traffic on the Middle East–Asia corridor declining 8.8%.
• IATA indicated that global scheduled seat capacity was expected to remain above 2025 levels during October and November, although growth would remain weak and uneven between regions.
• AFM previously reported that global airline passenger demand declined 0.8% in August 2026, following a temporary return to growth in July. Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 14.6% decline in August, indicating that September represented a narrowing of the region's year-on-year contraction.
• IATA's passenger traffic statistics cover scheduled domestic and international operations by member and non-member airlines. RPK measures passenger traffic, ASK represents available passenger capacity, and passenger load factor measures the proportion of capacity utilized. September figures remain provisional and may be revised.

Statements

• “Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets. These patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist at IATA.

Source: IATA