Market Intelligence: North and Central Asia

Aerviva, a Dubai, United Arab Emirates-based international aviation recruitment consultancy, published an article entitled “Is Increasing Pilot Retirement Age the Answer to Pilot Shortage Crisis?” where it outlined the reasons for such pilot shortage, the potential solution of increasing the mandatory retirement age, and the challenges that come with such scheme.

Check it out below.

The global aviation industry is soaring to new heights, experiencing rapid growth, and increasing demand for air travel. However, this expansion comes with its share of challenges, and one of the most important issues faced by the industry today is the shortage of pilots. Boeing estimates that 790,000 new pilots will be needed globally by 2037, while Airbus has a slightly more conservative but still overwhelming forecast of 450,000 new pilots needed by 2035. In response to this, aviation authorities and airlines are considering various options, one of which involves increasing the mandatory retirement age for pilots from 65 to 67.

Reasons for the pilot shortage

“Several factors have contributed to the shortage of pilots, leaving airlines struggling to fill open pilot positions,” says Jainita Hogervorst, Director of Aerviva Aviation Consultancy, a Dubai-based international consultancy, specialising in aviation recruitment and document management. “The first and most significant factor is the steady retirement rate of seasoned pilots. An increasing number of skilled aviators are reaching mandatory retirement age and leaving their long careers, creating a void that is not easily filled.”

Additionally, the rapid growth in air travel has led to escalating demand for pilots. New airlines are founded in both developed and emerging markets, intensifying the competition for talent.

The pilot shortage has far-reaching consequences that extend beyond the aviation industry. “As the number of available pilots dwindles, airlines face the daunting prospect of flight cancellations and reduced service quality. Passengers may encounter fewer flight options, longer layovers, and diminished customer experience. Furthermore, airlines grappling with staffing challenges may be forced to cut route expansions and reduce flight frequencies, impacting both their profitability and market share. Such ramifications can also have economic implications for passengers who may face higher ticket prices due to limited supply,” Hogervorst explains.

Talks of rising mandatory retirement age

Amidst this pilot shortage crisis, industry players have identified a potential solution — increasing the mandatory retirement age for pilots from 65 to 67. Presently, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) permits pilots to fly in multi-pilot operations until the age of 65.

“Even though, according to Pilot Institute, in 2021 the average pilot age was 43,7 years, by raising the retirement age, airlines can tap into the wealth of expertise, accumulated knowledge, and invaluable skills possessed by experienced pilots who have reached the age of 65. This influx of seasoned aviators can also help maintain a high level of operational efficiency,” she says. “Moreover, granting pilots an extended career trajectory provides ample time for aspiring aviators to accumulate the necessary flight hours and qualifications required for more advanced positions.”

Possible challenges of retirement age change

However, the extension of the retirement age must be approached with caution. ICAO already mandates regular medical assessments for pilots over the age of 60, ensuring they remain physically and mentally fit to operate aircraft. With an increase in the retirement age, even greater attention to health and well-being would become imperative.

“Frequent and comprehensive health checks would be necessary to guarantee that older pilots are fit for flying and that any age-related medical concerns are promptly addressed. By ensuring pilots’ continued fitness to fly, airlines can maintain their commitment to passenger safety and operational excellence,” shares Jainita Hogervorst.

“Additionally, increasing retirement age would require renegotiating pilot contracts which could be a lengthy and taxing process,” she explains. “Moreover, at the end of their careers, pilots are flying international widebodies. Yet ICAO standards require international flights to be operated by pilots under the age of 65, thus pilots over this age would most likely fly only domestically, therefore on smaller aircraft. This would in hand require retraining and requalification, which could take 3-5 full months and even push younger pilots from the training cycle.”

Hogervorst believes, that while it is essential to look for solutions for the constantly growing pilot shortage problem, every aspect of each solution should be carefully considered. “It is important the industry stakeholders take a well-balanced approach to addressing the pilot shortage, as only that way we can secure the future of the aviation industry, ensuring a seamless flying experience for passengers and sustainable growth for airlines worldwide.”

Source: Aerviva

Aerviva, a Dubai, United Arab Emirates-based international aviation recruitment consultancy, published an article entitled “Addressing the Global Aviation Professionals Shortage” delving into the rapid growth in the industry and the shortage that comes with it. The article also suggested measures that could help secure the future of the industry in terms of pilot supply and the latest digital innovations.

Check it out below.

Growth across the board

The global aviation industry is experiencing rapid growth, demand for air travel is increasing, and there are signs that air travel is returning to pre-COVID levels. Despite inflation, the pandemic that has become one of the most disruptive events in the history of the aviation industry, conflicts between countries and other economic and socio-political issues, commercial air travel is steadily increasing. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 4.35 billion people are expected to travel in 2023, nearly as many as the 4.54 billion who flew in 2019. In 2023, 34.4 million flights are expected (up 24.4% from 2022, down 11.5% from 2019).

Overall, this performance shows how resilient the industry is, having recovered so quickly from a near standstill. Encouraged by the increased demand, airlines are investing in new aircraft and technology to strengthen their operations and provide a better experience for customers. However, the industry’s recovery and expansion have been accompanied by some challenges, and one of the most important issues facing the industry today is the increasing demand for aviation personnel.

What does this mean for the industry?

The average person will never see the effort and people involved in getting an airplane off the ground, getting passengers to their destination safely and efficiently, and providing positive customer service. As professionals, we know what it takes to make this happen, and we need to proactively recruit the talent that will drive the industry forward more successfully than ever before.

As commercial aircraft fleets continue to grow and air traffic increases, so does the demand from airlines and operators for highly skilled pilots, flight attendants and aircraft maintenance technicians worldwide. Boeing estimates that 790,000 new pilots will be needed worldwide by 2037, while Airbus makes a slightly more conservative but still overwhelming forecast of 450,000 new pilots by 2035.

According to CAE’s Aviation Talent Forecast 2023, demand for aviation professionals will quantitatively reach the following levels:

• 3M Civil aviation professionals needed over the next 10 year
  • 284,000 new pilots will be needed over the next 10 years, representing a 39% increase in demand for pilots from 2023 to 2032.
  • 402,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians will be needed over the next 10 years, representing a 78% increase in demand for aircraft maintenance technicians between 2023 and 2032.
  • 599,000 new cabin crew members will be needed in the next 10 years, representing a 45% increase in cabin crew demand between 2023 and 2032.

The number of flights and the active fleet are the most important factors in the overall demand for civil aviation professionals. Proper staffing of these flights and replacement of pilots, cabin crew, and aircraft maintenance technicians who leave the workforce due to retirement and attrition are the real drivers of demand.

Does it mean that demand exceeds supply?

The significant demand for pilots across the industry is driven by a number of factors, including demographics, mandatory retirement age, early retirements due to COVID and projected growth in the aviation industry. Industry experts predict that demand for pilots will exceed supply worldwide within the next year or two and will continue to do so for the next decade. This demand for pilots is already evident in the U.S., where several regional airlines are cutting back operations and grounding aircraft because they are short of pilots.

Demand for aviation personnel is also driven by the fact that more and more skilled professionals are reaching the mandatory retirement age and ending their long careers, creating a gap that is not easy to fill. According to CAE’s Aviation Talent Forecast 2023, 38% of pilots and 34% of cabin crew in the United States (US) are now over the age of 50. Over 50% of aircraft maintenance technicians are over 40 years old. FAA statistics show that more than 45,000 pilots will need to retire in the next 10 years. This represents nearly 27% of the pilot population in the United States. The situation is similar in other parts of the world.

To prevent potential disruptions to operations in the future, it’s crucial to proactively address retirement and attrition.

What steps should be taken to ensure a secure future for industry?

Given that retirement and attrition will increase over time, there is an excellent opportunity for the industry to add new, innovative minds to its ranks and re-evaluate the way they work by using technology to improve current workflows. As members of a new generation begin their careers in aviation, they will bring a fresh perspective and will undoubtedly find ways to improve and optimize the way the industry operates. The following list of actions demonstrates that a future in aviation is possible and affordable:

1. Creating programs to support career development paths to make the industry more attractive
2. Reaching out early to potential candidates while they are in school and educating them about different roles and advancement opportunities
3. Attracting digital natives, who spend most of their time online using the latest and most interesting innovations such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) that will lead the way into the future.
4. Creating sources of financial support, work-study programs, sponsorship, increasing the number of Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) grants, and educational and industry partnerships. Partnerships with training organizations can also reduce the stress of recruiting, training, and retaining aviation professionals, including instructors.
5. Lower the cost of entry into the aviation industry, especially for pilots. There are many people interested in becoming pilots, but it can be expensive to earn a certificate.
6. Establishing cadet programs and aviation academies around the world

It is important to note that today airlines and business aviation companies have begun partnering with training organizations (and, in some cases, acquiring or creating their own organizations) to provide employment opportunities upon graduation and offer incentives such as job security and sponsorships. Airlines have also launched outreach programs to demonstrate that aviation is an attractive career choice, to promote interest in aviation as a profession, and to support educational efforts in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).

With widespread fleet growth expected in the aviation industry and the demand for travel ever-increasing, along with extraordinary technological advances, now is the right time to get into aviation. To maintain this momentum, we need to take steps to ensure we address retirement waves and attrition to avoid disruptions to future operations. The talent search must be expanded by diversifying the target audience and showing young entrants that aviation is open to all who want to be part of this dynamic and evolving industry.

Source: Aerviva