‘The Airline Pilot Shortage Will Get Worse’ – Oliver Wyman, Global Aviation Consultants

29th Aug 2022

One of the leading global aviation consultancy groups – Oliver Wyman recently published its updated insight on the looming pilot shortage entitled “The Airline Pilot Shortage Will Get Worse” written by Geoff Murray and Rory Heilakka.

Check out the full article here – key points below;

  • “Oliver Wyman forecast in early 2021 that an impending pilot shortage was on the horizon. This was contrary to reality at the time, as COVID-19 was decimating the airline industry and any recovery appeared years away. But as air travel demand continues to recover in 2022, our most recent forecast now projects that demand for pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 — and continue to worsen over the next decade.”
  • “We now expect global aviation to be short nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032, absent a downturn in future demand and/or strenuous efforts by the industry to bolster the supply of pilots.”
  • “We expect the Middle East to be the region affected soonest by the shortage outside of North America, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years. The region could face a shortage of 3,000 pilots by 2023 and 18,000 by 2032.”

AFM Team Note – “At AFM we track the global supply infrastructure (flight schools) of new pilots and have seen a steep decrease in the total capacity to train new pilots plus two years of a significant number of fewer individuals signing up for pilot training. Both of these factors will have a significant impact on the supply of new first officers over the coming three to five years.”

Source: Oliver Wyman Insights

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