Market Intelligence: Indian Subcontinent

Aircraft Manufacturer Embraer Forecasts Demand for 10,500 Regional Aircraft by 2044

  • Embraer expects demand for 10,500 sub-150-seat jets and turboprops within the next 20 years for the market in general
  • Value of new orders US$680 billion
  • China will lead annual RPK growth
  • North America will lead jet aircraft deliveries

Global –Embraer has published Market Outlook 2025, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category.

Market Outlook 2025 estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time.

The document also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.

“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”

Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook – By the Numbers

World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.9% annually through 2044. China will lead among seven global regions.

Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked

  • 5.7% China
  • 4.7% Latin America
  • 4.4% Africa
  • 4.4% Middle East
  • 4.1% Asia Pacific
  • 3.1% Europe & CIS
  • 2.4% North America

RPK share by the end of 2044

  • 39% Asia Pacific
  • 37% Europe + North America

Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats 10,500 units

  • 8,720 jets
  • 1,780 turboprops

Market value of all new aircraft USD 680 billion

Jet deliveries – 8,720 (% share) – by region

  • 2,680 North America (30.7%)
  • 1,990 Europe & CIS (22.8%)
  • 1,500 China (17.2%)
  • 1,050 Asia Pacific (12.1%)
  • 770 Latin America (8.8%)
  • 380 Africa (4.4%)
  • 350 Middle East (4.0%)

Turboprop deliveries – 1,780 (% share) – by region 640 Asia Pacific (36.0%)

  • 280 North America (15.7%)
  • 260 Europe & CIS (14.6%)
  • 220 Africa (12.4%)
  • 200 China (11.2%)
  • 160 Latin America (9.0%)
  • 20 Middle East (1.1%)

Download the complete Embraer 2025 Market Outlook here.

Source: Embraer

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Boeing CMO 2025 Forecasts 43,600 Aircraft Deliveries Through 2044, Led by Emerging Markets

Global – Boeing has released its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), forecasting demand for 43,600 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, fueled by passenger traffic growth of 4.2% annually and rapid fleet expansion in emerging markets. The projection was released ahead of the Paris Air Show 2025.

  • The forecast expects the global fleet to nearly double to 49,600 aircraft by 2044, with emerging markets accounting for over 50% of that fleet, up from 40% in 2024.

  • The report highlights a major replacement cycle: nearly half of new deliveries (~21,000 aircraft) will replace aging models, improving fuel efficiency and sustainability.

  • Boeing anticipates aircraft supply to catch up with demand by the end of the decade, giving airlines the capacity to renew and grow fleets more aggressively.

Aircraft demand by category (2025–2044):

  • Single-aisle: 33,285

  • Widebody: 7,815

  • Regional jets: 1,545

  • Freighters: 955

  • Total: 43,600

Key Trends:

  • Single-aisle aircraft will comprise 72% of the global fleet by 2044, up from 66% today, driven by low-cost carriers and short-haul growth in emerging markets.

  • The global widebody fleet will grow to 8,320 aircraft, with long-haul expansion increasingly led by carriers in developing regions.

  • Freighter fleet capacity is expected to grow by nearly two-thirds, requiring 2,900 new and converted freighters, driven by express cargo and supply chain diversification.

  • Airline networks now serve 30% more city pairs than a decade ago, offering more point-to-point connectivity.

Statement’s:

  • “Passenger air traffic has tripled and the global fleet has more than doubled since the start of the century,” said Brad McMullen, SVP of Commercial Sales and Marketing at Boeing. “We see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”

Find the complete CMO here.

Source: Boeing

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CAE Shares 2025 Aviation Talent Demand Forecast – 300,000 New Pilots Required by 2034

Global – An estimated 1.5 million civil aviation professionals will be needed worldwide by 2034, according to CAE’s biennial Aviation Talent Forecast, released today at the Paris International Air Show. The comprehensive 2025 edition of the forecast analyzes the need for pilots, aircraft maintenance technicians, cabin crew, and, for the first time, air traffic controllers, predicting that 71,000 controllers will be needed globally over the next 10 years.

The 2025 CAE Aviation Talent Forecast reports that 1,292,000 commercial aviation professionals will be needed – 267,000 pilots, 347,000 aviation maintenance technicians, and 678,000 cabin crew – with the largest percentage required to meet rapidly rising demand in the Asia Pacific region. In addition, 102,000 business aviation professionals are expected to be needed worldwide over the next 10 years, including 33,000 pilots and 69,000 aircraft maintenance technicians.

“The need for 1.5 million new aviation professionals by 2034 is being driven by record demand for air travel and a significant wave of retirements that is expected across all categories. With commercial and business aviation fleets expected to see double digit increases over the next 10 years, the industry must take action to attract, train, and retain personnel. Highly skilled aviation professionals are not just a necessity for the safety of the air transport system, they are the foundation for the successful expansion and resilience of the global aviation sector,” explains Marie-Christine Cloutier, Vice-President – Strategy, Performance, Air Traffic Services & Marketing at CAE.

“To meet the demand, the industry needs to be proactive and creative. Adaptability and optimized training will be key to supplying the demand,” she says.

Attracting talent is one challenge. Another is ensuring qualified candidates make it through graduation and into the workforce. Across all professions covered in the report, dropout and failure rates are higher than they should be. For example, in the United States alone, a staggering 30% of paid air traffic control students do not complete their training, according to the National Airspace System Safety Review Team.

“We need a comprehensive training environment that caters to the way new generations learn and thrive. At CAE, part of our solution is investing significantly in innovation and technology. Some of our latest advancements include CAE’s immersive pilot training app using Apple Vision Pro, and the CAE Prodigy Image Generator, our ultra-realistic 3D visual system using gaming technology,” Cloutier explains.

The Aviation Talent Forecast is a strategic tool for stakeholders across the aviation ecosystem which analyzes the upcoming talent demand, the drivers behind that demand, and actionable strategies the industry can adopt to attract and retain talent. The report also offers insightful perspectives on the industry’s transformation through advanced training, sustainable practices, and diverse talent acquisition. It also underscores how technology, sustainability, and diversity are shaping the future of the industry and strengthening the talent pipeline.

Check out the detailed CAE talent forecast here.

Source: CAE

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Airbus GMF 2025: India, Asia Drive Long-Term Demand as Global Fleet Set to Double

Global – Airbus has released its 2025 Global Market Forecast (GMF), projecting demand for 43,420 new aircraft by 2044, underpinned by steady long-term passenger traffic growth of 3.6% annually. The forecast, released alongside the Paris Air Show 2025, outlines key shifts in fleet composition and market trends over the next two decades.

  • Of the 43,420 projected new aircraft, 34,250 will be single-aisle aircraft, while 9,170 will be widebodies. About 44% of deliveries (18,930 units) will replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.

  • The global fleet is expected to more than double, surpassing 49,000 aircraft by 2044.

  • Growth is driven by long-term macro trends:

    • Global GDP expansion at +2.5% per year

    • 1.5 billion-person increase in the middle class, the demographic most likely to fly

  • Operational and Sustainability Highlights:

    • 34% of the current fleet comprises latest-generation aircraft delivering up to 25% better fuel efficiency

    • Average aircraft utilization has increased by 2 hours per day over 20 years (from 8.2 hours in 2004 to 10.2 hours in 2024)

    • 2024 marked a record global load factor of 83.5% and USD 61.9 billion in gross operating profit for the airline industry

Find the complete GMF here.

Source: Airbus

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